Musings Of The Worlds Fool

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Torrential rain and overflowing rivers swept through whole cities, towns, and farmlands, wreaking major havoc for farmers and […]. The oil market fluctuates constantly, and this usually has to do with technological, political, or economic issues. But often, the constant oscillation in price comes from a serious lack of transparency in the petroleum industry—a problem that many claim is in desperate need of a remedy. Our websites use cookies.

We use cookies to improve our services and tailor content for you. Your browser settings control cookies. For more information about the use of cookies on our websites, please see our Privacy Policy. Continue Reading. Got it. All rights reserved. Planet Monitoring. Planet Basemaps. Planet Tasking.

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Planet Explorer. Planet Analytic Feeds. Mine cover my family, community, and employer before they reach the larger national, cultural, and civilization goals. Yours probably do too. Think on it a bit and you will see it is very easy for us to be in conflict somewhere along that continuum. I am a classical liberal and inclined to side with Libertarians. How much conflict over social goals am I in with Progressives represented just on this site? My wife leans strongly progressive, so there is some conflict at home too. Different, but it is real. The lack of knowing of wants actually comes in two parts.

We have all experienced that. Some will argue this should not affect a good fitness function since all it really does is demonstrate explicit time dependence in the RPP being solved. I recognize the point made, but the problem solution involves humans. We have a tendency to argue that a solution is not a solution because the solver misunderstood the requirements when it is obvious to everyone else the misunderstanding was with the first person stating them.

Since that first person can become a revolutionary and pick up a gun, it does not help to point out the academic error. These unknowns mean the linear algebra problem is not defined. Study the RPP associated with most economic problems and you will see we need more than perfect knowledge of the present. We need perfect knowledge of the future delivered to the present. Since that will not happen absent Divine Intervention, we reduce to approximations. The shift we make from economy to cattalaxy IS one of those approximations.

I do not need to know all your goals let alone share them IF we can agree on price. It sounds cold, but I do not have to care about your children as much as you do nor you mine. I can care in the abstract and then let markets work things out. I can shift my caring to a justice market instead, watch for cheaters in the first market, and agree with you on regulation goals.

Abstractions like these are wonderfully powerful tools in a real world absent perfect knowledge. Of course 'economy', 'cattalaxy', and 'psychohistory' are closely related terms. Alfred Differ Thanks for you previous thoughts on population as a driving force in our discussion of robot ships.

It has opened up several useful avenues for me. Having said, that, I'm still preoccupied with individual empathy, 'syntonicity', mirror neurons, and the temporoparietal junction TPJ. Any model that ignores this fundamentally human psychology is doomed to failure IMHO. Due to the limitations you list above, there is little hope for deterministic mathematical models. Agent-based computational models are the way forward.

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Perhaps the Brits aren't completely de-evolving. Scidata, Psychohistory certainly enters the mix. Prediction should be possible, right? We do it all the time! We just need more computing power to get better initial information and process it, right? Turns out not to be true and the economists proved it decades ago with respect to the economically equivalent dream.

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Modern socialists tend to recognize the need for price signals, but some idealists are still stuck unaware that Marxist academics actually gave up the point… and admitted it. Peasants and serfs were kept in place through the forces of coercion by the Prince and domestication by the Priest. That is effectively what we do in extended families and small clans when a leader decides for everyone else. I would not say there is no hope of solution. Over the ages, we have been domesticating ourselves somewhat. With each abstraction enabling a market and meta-market over it, we are reducing ourselves a bit.

Look at the historical trend from polytheism to monotheism. That is a reduction enabling the members of those clades to agree on a larger set of goals. The power this brings to them should be apparent even if the reduction they accept is not… to them. Draw a square and extend it to a cube.

Most people will get the extension even though the drawing does not show the edges as perpendicular. Extend it again to a hypercube and it is hard to visualize, but not impossible to imagine.


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Extend it again into a million dimension or N were N is very large. Hard to imagine, but not impossible. Now go back and inscribe a circle in the square and a sphere in the cube. Extend that to the N-cube with an N-ball inside and ask about the ratio of the volume of the ball to the volume of the cube. The ratio tends to zero as N gets larger and that is not intuitive for most of us. The corners dominate. How do we approximate relationships? How do we interpolate between known functional values? How close do we have to be in a solution guess to believe a local optimization algorithm will get us the rest of the way?

Most of us make assumptions about these tricks that work in spaces of low dimensions and fail utterly in spaces with a huge number of dimensions. The simple volume ratio shows how our intuition can be fundamentally in error. If that is the case, how sensible is it to make public policy using that intuition? There are too many dimensions involved and I am not willing to be reduced involuntarily. This also gets to the core of my beef with Dune's portrayal of human societies. They were well described I would do a bit of planning myself involving pine boxes and six foot holes in the ground for those who tried to reduce me that way.

Brunner instead draws on a complex variety of causes and their interactions — long-range air pollution, pesticides, famine, unrest, state violence, terrorist attacks, biological invasions, water pollution, treatment-resistant diseases — in the depiction of this decline. As an example of pre-apocalyptic fiction, it is the very opposite of a stable transition towards global sustainability. It resonates with a political context of economic decline, political corruption, war and terrorism, and dismantled environmental protections — but with additional twists.

It depicts a society whose social and ecological resilience has been fatally undermined, an uncontrollable spiraling out of control. The novel has no real heroes and an impotent savior. It also has no super-villains, or even, really, anyone intentionally evil. It is an insightful and compelling case study for anyone exploring the linkages between speculative fiction, imagination and environmental politics, especially as the world it depicts is so well realized, and not a million miles from our own.

This article reflects on the themes and topics of the novel that resonate for social science theorists and teachers in the environmental social sciences, including global environmental politics. First, it provides a type of counterfactual analysis. Second, it provides a warning: how the world might be if we do not act. Third, it provides a model of a disastrous transition from a bad situation to an apocalyptic one, where social resilience has been worn down, and one disaster leads to others, with a snowballing or explosive effect.

Alfred Differ: We just need more computing power to get better initial information and process it, right? Throwing massive computer power at vast sets of big data was, and still is, at the core of most psychohistory models. Pfft indeed. That's like learning how and why to drive a car by chemically analyzing tons of asphalt concrete samples. A proper agent-based computational psychohistory model will probably not arrive in our lifetime but it's still fun to think about. I spend much more time on a greatly simplified 'toy' model which uses zebrafish as agents instead of human minds.

I chose these critters because they're really well-studied biology, behaviour, DNA , allowing a reasonably accurate agent to be programmed. Also I liked keeping them in aquariums as a kid they were cheap and hearty. Hi Alfred You don't understand "Engines" and neither do I! But in any system you can change a parameter and watch what it does - Which is my analogy If you are NOT willing to make ANY changes then you may as well be an oyster!

Society is our "Engine" and it's up to us to try and keep it going. Wholly Mackeral. Dig this new book: Chimera Research - Methods and Protocols. This book is organized into three parts: Part One provides readers with a summary of different human donor cell types. Part Two discusses methods for generating chimeras. The chapters here look at chick models and human-chick organizer grafts; generating human-pig interspecies chimeras; and techniques for transplanting mouse neural stem cells into a mouse disease model for stroke.

Part Three concludes the book with a look at ongoing ethical controversies and new scientific directions. Chapters in this part cover the ethics of crossing the xenobarrier; animal welfare; experimentation with spermatogonial stem cells; and cautious approaches to human-monkey chimera studies to further understand complex human brain disorders. There were cases and places where there may have been some positive effects. So why are libs no longer pushing it? Because we were headed toward violent civil war. At minimum huge white flight frompublic schools followed by tax revolts.

And no other issue so propelled Reaganism and the collapse of the FDR coalition.


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  6. It was tupid, stupid stupid I say this as a fellow who"self-bussed" walking miles to from 3 years at a nearly all-black high school. For California folks You might think you are when you tweak something that looks like one parameter, but I sincerely doubt such things exist. That thread you pull is multi-fibered and you don't know how many dimensions in the problem are changing. None of us do. I'm willing to make changes, but with a little more humility.

    Your analogy encourages hubris even if you yourself don't participate in that. I hope to see the young congress women start to refer to Trump as: a rapey, creepy, old pervert and say it with tone of total disgust. Pussy grabbing perv is another good one.

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    And talk about how you would never let your daughters, teen aged or otherwise, to be alone with or near that rapey, creepy old man. I am pretty sure Trump thinks of himself as a charmer and ladies man so having lots of attractive women refer to him as a rapey, creepy old pervert hits him at the core of his self conception. Larry That is the kind of reaction I want!!! First of all it reinforces that Trump is rapey and creepy and an old pervert.

    Second it makes republican women who say things like that seem to be nut jobs. A woman contracted a serious disease leukemia or something and needed a transplant from a close relative. Naturally they tested her two children. But that didn't work, because the genetic tests showed that they were not related to her.

    The kids were related to her husband; he was their father. But the tests showed that she wasn't their mother. Which she found confusing, since she had been there when they were born. And it was this other DNA that her kids came from.

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    Once they tested that DNA, they got a match. I've always wondered, for those anti-abortionists who believe that DNA defines a unique person, if this women deserves two votes in every election. See ol' Two Scoops cavorting with Jeffrey 'like em young' Epstein in this case : "I've known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.

    No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life. How many times across just the last year has DT proclaimed about some scandal-exposed official or pal: "I barely know the guy!

    Trump is the diametric opposite of Jesus in every conceivable way, but he gets an endless hall pass for one reason only. He enrages the same folks who confederates hate, and have always hated. Smarty-pants folks who know a lot. Oh and minorities and 'libbers' and furrin allies. Them too. And the ever-lengthening list of Republican child-molesters. All of them great guys!

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    Because they make you and me smartypants types frown in disapproval. That's what makes them the elect and chosen ones of the Almighty. You can start with this simple line from the Man himself. Rey: I've always wondered, for those anti-abortionists who believe that DNA defines a unique person, I doubt those anti-abortionists care a whit for newfangled book-learning concepts like DNA.

    In any other candidate or president, Trump's sexual proclivities would have Republican voters racing each other to denounce him.