Chapter 013, The IS-LM-BP Approach

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Energy Biosciences Institute

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Services on Demand

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Pediatr Int. Pulse oximetry measures a lower heart rate at birth compared with electrocardiography. Room air resuscitation of the depressed newborn: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Armanian AM, Badiee Z. Resuscitation of preterm newborns with low concentration oxygen versus high concentration oxygen. J Res Pharm Pract. Resuscitation of preterm neonates with limited versus high oxygen strat- egy. Oxygen at birth and prolonged cere- bral vasoconstriction in preterm infants. For example, restoring forests or mangroves can enhance biodiversity and protect against flooding and storms.

But there could also be risks involved with some CDR methods. For example, deploying BECCS at large scale would require a large amount of land to cultivate the biomass required for bioenergy. This could have consequences for sustainable development if the use of land competes with producing food to support a growing population, biodiversity conservation or land rights. There are also other considerations. Summary : Adaptation is the process of adjusting to current or expected changes in climate and its effects. Even though climate change is a global problem, its impacts are experienced differently across the world.

This means that responses are often specific to the local context, and so people in different regions are adapting in different ways. Therefore, stabilizing global temperatures at 1. Despite many successful examples around the world, progress in adaptation is, in many regions, in its infancy and unevenly distributed globally. Adaptation refers to the process of adjustment to actual or expected changes in climate and its effects.

Since different parts of the world are experiencing the impacts of climate change differently, there is similar diversity in how people in a given region are adapting to those impacts. Examples of adaptation efforts taking place around the world include investing in flood defences such as building sea walls or restoring mangroves, efforts to guide development away from high risk areas, modifying crops to avoid yield reductions, and using social learning social interactions that change understanding on the community level to modify agricultural practices, amongst many others.

Adaptation also involves building capacity to respond better to climate change impacts, including making governance more flexible and strengthening financing mechanisms, such as by providing different types of insurance. In general, an increase in global temperature from present day to 1. Stabilizing global temperature increase at 1. Since adaptation is still in early stages in many regions, there are questions about the capacity of vulnerable communities to cope with any amount of further warming. Successful adaptation can be supported at the national and sub-national levels, with national governments playing an important role in coordination, planning, determining policy priorities, and distributing resources and support.

However, given that the need for adaptation can be very different from one community to the next, the kinds of measures that can successfully reduce climate risks will also depend heavily on the local context. When done successfully, adaptation can allow individuals to adjust to the impacts of climate change in ways that minimize negative consequences and to maintain their livelihoods. This could involve, for example, a farmer switching to drought-tolerant crops to deal with increasing occurrences of heatwaves. In some cases, however, the impacts of climate change could result in entire systems changing significantly, such as moving to an entirely new agricultural system in areas where the climate is no longer suitable for current practices.

Constructing sea walls to stop flooding due to sea level rise from climate change is another example of adaptation, but developing city planning to change how flood water is managed throughout the city would be an example of transformational adaptation. These actions require significantly more institutional, structural, and financial support.

While this kind of transformational adaptation would not be needed everywhere in a 1. Few empirical examples exist to date. Examples from around the world show that adaptation is an iterative process. Adaptation pathways describe how communities can make decisions about adaptation in an ongoing and flexible way. Such pathways allow for pausing, evaluating the outcomes of specific adaptation actions, and modifying the strategy as appropriate.

Due to their flexible nature, adaptation pathways can help to identify the most effective ways to minimise the impacts of present and future climate change for a given local context. This is important since adaptation can sometimes exacerbate vulnerabilities and existing inequalities if poorly designed. Maladaptation can be seen if a particular adaptation option has negative consequences for some e. While adaptation is important to reduce the negative impacts from climate change, adaptation measures on their own are not enough to prevent climate change impacts entirely.

The more global temperature rises, the more frequent, severe, and erratic the impacts will be, and adaptation may not protect against all risks. Examples of where limits may be reached include substantial loss of coral reefs, massive range losses for terrestrial species, more human deaths from extreme heat, and losses of coastal-dependent livelihoods in low lying islands and coasts.

Such change would require the upscaling and acceleration of the implementation of far- reaching, multilevel and cross-sectoral climate mitigation and addressing barriers. Such systemic change would need to be linked to complementary adaptation actions, including transformational adaptation, especially for pathways that temporarily overshoot 1. Current national pledges on mitigation and adaptation are not enough to stay below the Paris Agreement temperature limits and achieve its adaptation goals.

While transitions in energy efficiency, carbon intensity of fuels, electrification and land-use change are underway in various countries, limiting warming to 1. Although multiple communities around the world are demonstrating the possibility of implementation consistent with 1. To strengthen the global response, almost all countries would need to significantly raise their level of ambition. Implementation of this raised ambition would require enhanced institutional capabilities in all countries, including building the capability to utilize indigenous and local knowledge medium evidence, high agreement.

In developing countries and for poor and vulnerable people, implementing the response would require financial, technological and other forms of support to build capacity, for which additional local, national and international resources would need to be mobilized high confidence. However, public, financial, institutional and innovation capabilities currently fall short of implementing far-reaching measures at scale in all countries high confidence.

Transnational networks that support multilevel climate action are growing, but challenges in their scale-up remain. Adaptation needs will be lower in a 1. While adaptation finance has increased quantitatively, significant further expansion would be needed to adapt to 1. Qualitative gaps in the distribution of adaptation finance, readiness to absorb resources, and monitoring mechanisms undermine the potential of adaptation finance to reduce impacts.

The energy system transition that would be required to limit global warming to 1. The political, economic, social and technical feasibility of solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage technologies has improved dramatically over the past few years, while that of nuclear energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage CCS in the electricity sector have not shown similar improvements.

Electrification, hydrogen, bio-based feedstocks and substitution, and, in several cases, carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage CCUS , would lead to the deep emissions reductions required in energy-intensive industries to limit warming to 1. However, those options are limited by institutional, economic and technical constraints, which increase financial risks to many incumbent firms medium evidence, high agreement. Energy efficiency in industry is more economically feasible and helps enable industrial system transitions but would have to be complemented with greenhouse gas GHG -neutral processes or carbon dioxide removal CDR to make energy-intensive industries consistent with 1.

Global and regional land-use and ecosystems transitions and associated changes in behaviour that would be required to limit warming to 1. Alterations of agriculture and forest systems to achieve mitigation goals could affect current ecosystems and their services and potentially threaten food, water and livelihood security. While this could limit the social and environmental feasibility of land-based mitigation options, careful design and implementation could enhance their acceptability and support sustainable development objectives medium evidence, medium agreement.

Changing agricultural practices can be an effective climate adaptation strategy. A diversity of adaptation options exists, including mixed crop-livestock production systems which can be a cost-effective adaptation strategy in many global agriculture systems robust evidence, medium agreement. Improving irrigation efficiency could effectively deal with changing global water endowments, especially if achieved via farmers adopting new behaviours and water- efficient practices rather than through large-scale infrastructural interventions medium evidence, medium agreement. Well-designed adaptation processes such as community-based adaptation can be effective depending upon context and levels of vulnerability.

Improving the efficiency of food production and closing yield gaps have the potential to reduce emissions from agriculture, reduce pressure on land, and enhance food security and future mitigation potential high confidence. Improving productivity of existing agricultural systems generally reduces the emissions intensity of food production and offers strong synergies with rural development, poverty reduction and food security objectives, but options to reduce absolute emissions are limited unless paired with demand-side measures.

Technological innovation including biotechnology, with adequate safeguards, could contribute to resolving current feasibility constraints and expand the future mitigation potential of agriculture. Shifts in dietary choices towards foods with lower emissions and requirements for land, along with reduced food loss and waste, could reduce emissions and increase adaptation options high confidence. A mix of mitigation and adaptation options implemented in a participatory and integrated manner can enable rapid, systemic transitions — in urban and rural areas — that are necessary elements of an accelerated transition consistent with limiting warming to 1.

Various mitigation options are expanding rapidly across many geographies. Although many have development synergies, not all income groups have so far benefited from them. Electrification, end-use energy efficiency and increased share of renewables, amongst other options, are lowering energy use and decarbonizing energy supply in the built environment, especially in buildings.

Other rapid changes needed in urban environments include demotorization and decarbonization of transport, including the expansion of electric vehicles, and greater use of energy-efficient appliances medium evidence, high agreement. Technological and social innovations can contribute to limiting warming to 1. Feasible adaptation options include green infrastructure, resilient water and urban ecosystem services, urban and peri-urban agriculture, and adapting buildings and land use through regulation and planning medium evidence, medium to high agreement.

Synergies can be achieved across systemic transitions through several overarching adaptation options in rural and urban areas. Investments in health, social security and risk sharing and spreading are cost-effective adaptation measures with high potential for scaling up medium evidence, medium to high agreement. Disaster risk management and education-based adaptation have lower prospects of scalability and cost-effectiveness medium evidence, high agreement but are critical for building adaptive capacity. Converging adaptation and mitigation options can lead to synergies and potentially increase cost-effectiveness, but multiple trade-offs can limit the speed of and potential for scaling up.

Many examples of synergies and trade-offs exist in all sectors and system transitions. For instance, sustainable water management high evidence, medium agreement and investment in green infrastructure medium evidence, high agreement to deliver sustainable water and environmental services and to support urban agriculture are less cost-effective than other adaptation options but can help build climate resilience. Achieving the governance, finance and social support required to enable these synergies and to avoid trade-offs is often challenging, especially when addressing multiple objectives, and attempting appropriate sequencing and timing of interventions.

Though CO 2 dominates long-term warming, the reduction of warming short-lived climate forcers SLCFs , such as methane and black carbon, can in the short term contribute significantly to limiting warming to 1. Reductions of black carbon and methane would have substantial co-benefits high confidence , including improved health due to reduced air pollution. This, in turn, enhances the institutional and socio- cultural feasibility of such actions.

Reductions of several warming SLCFs are constrained by economic and social feasibility low evidence, high agreement. As they are often co-emitted with CO 2 , achieving the energy, land and urban transitions necessary to limit warming to 1. Most CDR options face multiple feasibility constraints, which differ between options, limiting the potential for any single option to sustainably achieve the large-scale deployment required in the 1.

Executive Summary

Those 1. Though BECCS and AR may be technically and geophysically feasible, they face partially overlapping yet different constraints related to land use. The land footprint per tonne of CO 2 removed is higher for AR than for BECCS, but given the low levels of current deployment, the speed and scales required for limiting warming to 1. The large potential of afforestation and the co-benefits if implemented appropriately e.

The energy requirements and economic costs of direct air carbon capture and storage DACCS and enhanced weathering remain high medium evidence, medium agreement. At the local scale, soil carbon sequestration has co-benefits with agriculture and is cost-effective even without climate policy high confidence. Its potential feasibility and cost-effectiveness at the global scale appears to be more limited.

Uncertainties surrounding solar radiation modification SRM measures constrain their potential deployment. These uncertainties include: technological immaturity; limited physical understanding about their effectiveness to limit global warming; and a weak capacity to govern, legitimize, and scale such measures. Some recent model-based analysis suggests SRM would be effective but that it is too early to evaluate its feasibility. Even in the uncertain case that the most adverse side-effects of SRM can be avoided, public resistance, ethical concerns and potential impacts on sustainable development could render SRM economically, socially and institutionally undesirable low agreement, medium evidence.

The speed of transitions and of technological change required to limit warming to 1. But the geographical and economic scales at which the required rates of change in the energy, land, urban, infrastructure and industrial systems would need to take place are larger and have no documented historic precedent limited evidence, medium agreement. To reduce inequality and alleviate poverty, such transformations would require more planning and stronger institutions including inclusive markets than observed in the past, as well as stronger coordination and disruptive innovation across actors and scales of governance.

Governance consistent with limiting warming to 1. For 1. System transitions can be enabled by enhancing the capacities of public, private and financial institutions to accelerate climate change policy planning and implementation, along with accelerated technological innovation, deployment and upkeep. Behaviour change and demand-side management can significantly reduce emissions, substantially limiting the reliance on CDR to limit warming to 1.

Behaviour- and lifestyle- related measures and demand-side management have already led to emission reductions around the world and can enable significant future reductions high confidence. Social innovation through bottom-up initiatives can result in greater participation in the governance of systems transitions and increase support for technologies, practices and policies that are part of the global response to limit warming to 1.

This rapid and far-reaching response required to keep warming below 1. An estimated mean annual incremental investment of around 1. Though quality policy design and effective implementation may enhance efficiency, they cannot fully substitute for these investments. Enabling this investment requires the mobilization and better integration of a range of policy instruments that include the reduction of socially inefficient fossil fuel subsidy regimes and innovative price and non-price national and international policy instruments.

These would need to be complemented by de-risking financial instruments and the emergence of long-term low-emission assets. These instruments would aim to reduce the demand for carbon-intensive services and shift market preferences away from fossil fuel-based technology. Evidence and theory suggest that carbon pricing alone, in the absence of sufficient transfers to compensate their unintended distributional cross- sector, cross-nation effects, cannot reach the incentive levels needed to trigger system transitions robust evidence, medium agreement.

But, embedded in consistent policy packages, they can help mobilize incremental resources and provide flexible mechanisms that help reduce the social and economic costs of the triggering phase of the transition robust evidence, medium agreement. Increasing evidence suggests that a climate-sensitive realignment of savings and expenditure towards low-emission, climate-resilient infrastructure and services requires an evolution of global and national financial systems. This could be facilitated by a change of incentives for private day-to-day expenditure and the redirection of savings from speculative and precautionary investments towards long- term productive low-emission assets and services.

This implies the mobilization of institutional investors and mainstreaming of climate finance within financial and banking system regulation. Access by developing countries to low-risk and low-interest finance through multilateral and national development banks would have to be facilitated medium evidence, high agreement. New forms of public— private partnerships may be needed with multilateral, sovereign and sub-sovereign guarantees to de-risk climate-friendly investments, support new business models for small-scale enterprises and help households with limited access to capital.

Ultimately, the aim is to promote a portfolio shift towards long-term low-emission assets that would help redirect capital away from potentially stranded assets medium evidence, medium agreement. Knowledge gaps around implementing and strengthening the global response to climate change would need to be urgently resolved if the transition to a 1. Remaining questions include: how much can be realistically expected from innovation and behavioural and systemic political and economic changes in improving resilience, enhancing adaptation and reducing GHG emissions?

How can rates of changes be accelerated and scaled up? What is the outcome of realistic assessments of mitigation and adaptation land transitions that are compliant with sustainable development, poverty eradication and addressing inequality? What are life-cycle emissions and prospects of early-stage CDR options? To what extent would limiting warming to 1. How can different actors and processes in climate governance reinforce each other, and hedge against the fragmentation of initiatives? Revi, M. Babiker, P. Bertoldi, M. Buckeridge, A. Cartwright, W.

Dong, J. Ford, S.

Original Research ARTICLE

Fuss, J. Hourcade, D. Ley, R. Mechler, P. Newman, A. Revokatova, S. Schultz, L. Steg, and T. Sugiyama, Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response. In: Global Warming of 1. Zhai, H. Roberts, J. Skea, P. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.

Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield eds. In Press.

This chapter discusses how the global economy and socio-technical and socio-ecological systems can transition to 1. In the context of systemic transitions, the chapter assesses adaptation and mitigation options, including carbon dioxide removal CDR , and potential solar radiation modification SRM remediative measures Section 4. The impacts of a 1. From a mitigation perspective, 1. This chapter and Chapter 5 highlight the potential that combined mitigation, development and poverty reduction offer for accelerated decarbonization.

The global context is an increasingly interconnected world, with the human population growing from the current 7. There has been a consistent growth of global economic output, wealth and trade with a significant reduction in extreme poverty. These trends could continue for the next few decades Burt et al. However, these trends co-exist with rising inequality Piketty, 3 , exclusion and social stratification, and regions locked in poverty traps Deaton, 4 that could fuel social and political tensions. Each of these affects the implementation of both 1.

The range of mitigation and adaptation actions that can be deployed in the short run are well-known: for example, low-emission technologies, new infrastructure, and energy efficiency measures in buildings, industry and transport; transformation of fiscal structures; reallocation of investments and human resources towards low-emission assets; sustainable land and water management; ecosystem restoration; enhancement of adaptive capacities to climate risks and impacts; disaster risk management; research and development; and mobilization of new, traditional and indigenous knowledge.

The issue is whether aligning 1. It is difficult to imagine how a 1. Unless affordable and environmentally and socially acceptable CDR becomes feasible and available at scale well before , 1. The social costs and benefits of 1. Whatever its potential long-term benefits, a transition to a 1. This chapter reviews literature addressing the alignment of climate with other public policies e.

As the transitions associated with 1. A key governance challenge is how the convergence of voluntary domestic policies can be organized via aligned global, national and sub-national governance, based on reciprocity Ostrom and Walker, 17 and partnership UN, 18 , and how different actors and processes in climate governance can reinforce each other to enable this Gupta, ; Andonova et al.

The emergence of polycentric sources of climate action and transnational and subnational networks that link these efforts Abbott, 20 offer the opportunity to experiment and learn from different approaches, thereby accelerating approaches led by national governments Cole, ; Jordan et al. Section 4. The 1. A wide range of 1. A variety of 1. These technology and policy options include energy demand reduction, greater penetration of low-emission and carbon-free technologies as well as electrification of transport and industry, and reduction of land-use change.

Both the detailed integrated modelling pathway literature and a number of broader sectoral and bottom-up studies provide examples of how these sectoral technological and policy characteristics can be broken down sectorally for 1. Both the integrated pathway literature and the sectoral studies agree on the need for rapid transitions in the production and use of energy across various sectors, to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.

The pace of these transitions is particularly significant for the supply mix and electrification Table 4. Individual, sectoral studies may show higher rates of change compared to IAMs Figueres et al. These trends and transformation patterns create opportunities and challenges for both mitigation and adaptation Sections 4. Sectoral indicators of the pace of transformation in 1. If a number in square brackets is indicated, this is the number of scenarios for this indicator.

There is agreement in the literature reviewed by Chapter 2 that staying below 1. Based on the IAM literature reviewed in Chapter 2, climate policies in line with limiting warming to 1. This can be compared to an average of about 3. Not only the level of investment but also the type and speed of sectoral transformation would be impacted by the transitions associated with 1. IAM literature projects that investments in low-emission energy would overtake fossil fuel investments globally by in 1. The projected low-emission investments in electricity generation allocations over the period — are: solar 0.

In contrast, investments in fossil fuel extraction and unabated fossil electricity generation along a 1. Estimates of investments in other infrastructure are currently unavailable, but they could be considerably larger in volume than solely those in the energy sector Section 4. The available literature indicates that 1.

Examples of effective approaches to integrate mitigation with adaptation in the context of sustainable development and to deal with distributional implications proposed in the literature include the utilization of dynamic adaptive policy pathways Haasnoot et al. Yet, even with good policy design and effective implementation, 1. Projections of the magnitudes of global economic costs associated with 1. Managing these costs and distributional effects would require an approach that takes account of unintended cross-sector, cross-nation, and cross-policy trade-offs during the transition Droste et al.

Nonetheless, literature on potential synergies and trade-offs between 1. Areas of potential trade-offs include reduction in final energy demand in relation to SDG 7 the universal clean energy access goal and increase of biomass production in relation to land use, water resources, food production, biodiversity and air quality Chapter 2, Sections 2. Strengthening the institutional and policy responses to deal with these challenges is discussed in Section 4.

A more in-depth assessment of the complexity and interfaces between 1. Incremental warming from 1. Impacts are sector-, system- and region-specific, as described in Chapter 3. For example, precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences Chapter 3, Sections 3. Similarly, regional reduction in water availability and the lengthening of regional dry spells have negative implications for agricultural yields depending on crop types and world regions see for example Chapter 3, Sections 3.

Adaptation helps reduce impacts and risks. However, adaptation has limits. Not all systems can adapt, and not all impacts can be reversed Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5. For example, tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching Chapter 3, Box 3. Society-wide transformation involves socio-technical transitions and social-ecological resilience Gillard et al.

Transitional adaptation pathways would need to respond to low-emission energy and economic systems, and the socio-technical transitions for mitigation involve removing barriers in social and institutional processes that could also benefit adaptation Pant et al. In this chapter, transformative change is framed in mitigation around socio-technical transitions, and in adaptation around socio-ecological transitions.

In both instances, emphasis is placed on the enabling role of institutions including markets, and formal and informal regulation. Realizing 1. This section examines whether the needed rates of change have historical precedents and are underway. Some studies conduct a de-facto validation of IAM projections. For CO 2 emission intensity over —, this resulted in the IAMs projecting declining emission intensities while actual observations showed an increase. For individual technologies in particular solar energy , IAM projections have been conservative regarding deployment rates and cost reductions Creutzig et al.

When metrics are normalized to gross domestic product GDP; as opposed to other normalization metrics such as primary energy , low-emission technology deployment rates used by IAMs over the course of the coming century are shown to be broadly consistent with past trends, but rates of change in emission intensity are typically overestimated Wilson et al. This finding suggests that barriers and enablers other than costs and climate limits play a role in technological change, as also found in the innovation literature Hekkert et al.

One barrier to a greater rate of change in energy systems is that economic growth in the past has been coupled to the use of fossil fuels. Disruptive innovation and socio-technical changes could enable the decoupling of economic growth from a range of environmental drivers, including the consumption of fossil fuels, as represented by 1.

This may be relative decoupling due to rebound effects that see financial savings generated by renewable energy used in the consumption of new products and services Jackson and Senker, ; Gillingham et al. A longer data trend would be needed before stable decoupling can be established.

The observed decoupling in and was driven by absolute declines in both coal and oil use since the early s in Europe, in the past seven years in the United States and Australia, and more recently in China Newman, Oil consumption in China is still rising slowly, but absolute decoupling is ongoing in megacities like Beijing Gao and Newman, 49 see Box 4. In some regions and places, incremental adaptation would not be sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems see Chapter 3.

Transformational adaptation would then be required Bahadur and Tanner, ; Pant et al. Transformational adaptation refers to actions aiming at adapting to climate change resulting in significant changes in structure or function that go beyond adjusting existing practices Dowd et al. Few studies have assessed the potentially transformative character of adaptation options Pelling et al. Transformational adaptation can be adopted at a large scale, can lead to new strategies in a region or resource system, transform places and potentially shift locations Kates et al. Some systems might require transformational adaptation at 1.

Implementing adaptation policies in anticipation of 1. Transformational adaptation would seek deep and long-term societal changes that influence sustainable development Chung Tiam Fook, ; Few et al. Adaptation requires multidisciplinary approaches integrating scientific, technological and social dimensions. For example, a framework for transformational adaptation and the integration of mitigation and adaptation pathways can transform rural indigenous communities to address risks of climate change and other stressors Thornton and Comberti, In villages in rural Nepal, transformational adaptation has taken place, with villagers changing their agricultural and pastoralist livelihood strategies after years of lost crops due to changing rain patterns and degradation of natural resources Thornton and Comberti, Instead, they are now opening stores, hotels, and tea shops.

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IS-LM Curve Model: Structure, Usefulness and Limitation (With Diagram)

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The IS-LM-BP model (or IS-LM in an international context)

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